Report for December 2000

Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC 19 January 2001 REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2000 SUMMARY Latin American markets were weak again in December, shaken by a further sell- off in the US stockmarket and increased fears of a global slowdown. The MSCI Latin American index fell by 0.9% in sterling terms, ending the fourth quarter down 9.4% and bringing a drop of 11.9% for the year. The weakest major market was Mexico, which fell by 7.6% as worries grew over the effect of slower US growth and lower oil prices on the Mexican economy. In contrast the Brazilian market rose by 7.9% in response to a 75bp cut in local interest rates and improved sentiment in the local market following the IMF's rescue package for Argentina. If we compare Latin America's performance with that of global Emerging Markets, it outperformed during all of last year. The MSCI Emerging Markets Free Index fell by 2.9% in December in sterling terms, and ended the quarter and the year down 14.4% and 26.4% respectively, affected by continued weakness in Asia. However Latin America underperformed the developed markets of the MSCI World index, which fell by 7.4% in Q4 and by a similar amount for the full year. Our NAV rose by 1.6% in December, outperforming the benchmark index. We benefited particularly from good stock selection in Brazil, where we maintain an overweight position. For the calendar year our NAV fell by 12.6%, slightly below the benchmark fall of 11.9%. Although asset allocation was positive for the year as was our stock selection in Brazil, we were hurt by the underperformance of our Mexican holdings relative to the index. Since the year end Latin American markets have regained some positive direction following the US Federal Reserve's surprise interest rate cut on 3 January. Over recent months we have seen a decisive shift in the outlook for the world economy from excessive growth to a significant slowdown. At the same time, we are expecting interest rates to be cut further in the US and other major economies in order to avoid the threat of recession. In a world of slower but still positive growth, with lower energy costs and falling interest rates, the outlook for Latin America is relatively good, though countries such as such as Venezuela and Mexico will miss the boost to their fiscal and trade accounts that this year's oil price windfall gave them. BRAZIL The market rose by 7.9% in December, significantly outperforming the regional index. The most important news in Brazil during the month was a 75bp cut in overnight rates on 20 December to 15.75%, which was above market expectations. The Central Bank explained its decision by commenting that domestic inflation was on a favourable trend and that the external environment had improved. Standard and Poors upgraded Brazilian sovereign debt to BB- in the first week of January, vindicating the decision to cut rates in the midst of savage profit downgrades in the US and weak international stock markets. Since then we have seen a further 50bp cut in rates to 15.25% on 17 January. Uncertainty over oil prices means that rate cuts may now pause for a while. The IMF package has reduced the risk of contagion from Argentina to Brazil and established a floor with regard to investor and lender expectations. The Central Bank has revised downwards its growth expectations for next year but is still talking about GDP growth of 4.5% and inflation of below 4%. More moderate growth and a weaker oil price should allow the current account deficit to stabilise. The January to November figure was a deficit of 4.0% of GDP, although this was more than covered by FDI. The main corporate news was the sale of steel company CSN's 9% stake in utility Light for a higher than expected $362m. The proceeds will be applied to reduce debt. More asset sales should be expected, along with the ongoing restructuring of the cross-shareholdings between CSN and CVRD. We increased our holding in CSN in December, as we applaud its strategy of increased focus on its core steel business and await an extraordinary dividend payment. This was funded by a reduction in our holding in Gerdau, which is more exposed than CSN to the weak North American steel market. Meanwhile Unibanco, pushed into fourth place in the private banking market by BSCH's acquisition of Banespa, announced the acquisition of a further 50% stake in consumer finance house Fininvest, which has 3 million lower income clients. MEXICO The Mexican market fell heavily in December, down 7.6% on weaker oil prices and fears of a slowdown in the US hitting demand for Mexican exports. There is also concern over inflationary pressures. CPI ended the year at 9.0% and the target for 2001 is 6.5%. To combat inflation, Central Bank governor Guillermo Ortiz will keep monetary policy tight; 3 month interest rates are today over 19% in nominal terms. So far there is little sign of a slowdown in consumption, with retail sales up 10.4% in October. The Mexican peso fell from P9.4 to P9.6 to the US dollar over the month and has since weakened further to P9.9. We believe that consensus is still too optimistic over Mexican earnings growth and the direction of the exchange rate given the slowdown in US economic activity and the fall in the oil price: the factors which have driven the strong real appreciation of the peso over the last four years have reversed. The other main concern in the market in December was related to the approval of the 2001 budget, introduced to Congress by the new Finance Minister Francisco Gil Diaz after the inauguration of President Fox on 1 December. It assumes a 4.5% growth rate in GDP and a tighter fiscal deficit of 0.6% based on an oil price of US$18/barrel. The approval of the budget was seen as a key test of the new government and its ability to push through policy without a Congressional majority; in the end approval was secured in a relatively straightforward manner. Brewer Femsa issued a profits warning, saying that its 12 month consolidated operating profits would grow only 9-11% due to lower than expected sales at its beer division. Beer shipments have fallen around 18% YOY partly due to adverse weather conditions in Northern Mexico, tough comparisons in December 1999, and a major effort to streamline its commercial practices by, for example, implementing stricter payment terms with suppliers. We believe that although the stock has been weak short-term, this setback is understandable when Femsa is undertaking a significant strategic change which will bring longer-term benefits. In other corporate news, Telmex announced that the spin-off of its mobile business America Movil would take place in Q1 2001, and Bank of Montreal announced that it would sell its 10.5% stake in Grupo Financiero BBVA-Bancomer over the next two years. Part of this stake will be acquired by the controlling shareholder, BBVA of Spain. We made no major changes to our portfolio in December. ARGENTINA The Argentine market fell 1.8% in sterling terms during the month. After weeks of speculation, the size of the 3 year IMF-led emergency credit package was announced to be US$39.7bn, of which $7bn corresponds to a debt swap to be arranged in early 2001. As we discussed last month, several of the preconditions for the IMF money to be released have already been dealt with, including the passage of the 2001 budget. However, now that the short-term risk of default has been eliminated, the country's next major challenge is to promote growth. Q3 GDP figures were announced to have shown no growth at all, and we do not believe that the package will be enough to provide a substantial boost towards the 2.5% growth assumed in the 2001 budget. The fiscal program announced in conjunction with the IMF aid package does acknowledge that further tightening would be an ineffective strategy under the current circumstances. However, there is no genuine fiscal activism, simply an acknowledgement that initial GDP growth assumptions were not realistic, and that as a result tax collection forecasts were also overestimated. As a result, and given the absence of discretion on monetary policy, economic growth continues to rely largely on external factors, such as terms of trade and sovereign spreads. We made no changes to our zero weight in Argentina during the month. CHILE The Chilean market fell by 5% in December in sterling terms. A number of economic data releases began to show a more positive trend, namely falling unemployment, stronger retail sales figures and October GDP growth of 5.8%. Interest rates have been left unchanged at the current stimulative 5% level; although core inflation of 3.3% in November was above the government's year end target, it has already fallen since October and lower oil prices should further relieve inflationary pressures. The new tender offer and corporate governance law came into effect. Before the law's enactment, several large takeovers took place. Conglomerate Quinenco, controlled by the Luksic Group, took control of Banco de Chile, the country's fourth largest by assets. Telecom Italia offered $905m to gain control of Entel from Chilquinta, and the way was cleared for AES to take over utility Gener. We made no change to our Chilean holdings during the month. ANDEAN MARKETS There was little news from the Andean countries in December. Colombia and Peru underperformed, down 9.7% and 3.8% respectively in sterling terms, while Venezuela rose by 5.4% on another wave of takeover speculation. Inflation is still well under control in Colombia, where CPI is running at 7.98% for the 11 months to November. Third quarter growth was 3.1%, led by exports, with some concern over signs of a slowdown in Q4. The main measures of the country's tax reform package were finally approved by Congress; these are designed to raise $1.5bn in new revenues. GDP growth in Peru was only 0.2% in October after a contraction in construction and fishing. The banking authorities intervened in several smaller Peruvian banks which were suffering from a liquidity crisis after a withdrawal of government deposits. Venezuela has announced that it will depreciate the band governing the Bolivar's exchange rate against the dollar by 7% next year. Bell South and a Bell Canada/SBC/Telmex consortium have been awarded licences to operate wireless local loop telecommunications services in various regions of Venezuela. Food company Mavesa is in talks with several potential acquirors including the privately held Polar group. We made no changes to our portfolio in these markets over the month. NET ASSET VALUE Fully diluted 31/12/00 30/11/00 31/12/00 30/11/00 84.5p 83.2p 87.7p 86.7p MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/12/00 30/11/00 Ordinary Shares 71.25p 74.25p Warrants 14.75p 16.75p NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £41.8 million (£41.3 million). Market exposure 31/12/00 30/11/00 EQUITIES Brazil 48.6 42.8 Chile 10.7 11.2 Colombia 0.4 0.5 Mexico 33.9 37.1 Venezuela 1.3 1.1 TOTAL PORTFOLIO 94.9 92.7 Net Current Assets 5.1 7.3 ------ -------- TOTAL 100.0 100.0 ------ -------- Based on total assets of £47.9 million (£47.9 million). GEARING Borrowings and Gearing at 31/12/00 30/11/00 14.7% 16.1% ==== ==== LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £42.7 million equal to 93.8% of total portfolio) % of Country £000's portfolio Telmex Mexico 6,162 13.5 Banco Ita£ Brazil 3,608 7.9 Petrobras Brazil 3,387 7.4 Tele Norte Leste Brazil 3,227 7.1 Ambev Brazil 3,218 7.1 Unibanco Brazil 2,582 5.7 Brasil Telecom Brazil 1,746 3.8 Sider Nacional Brazil 1,671 3.7 Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 1,586 3.5 Femsa Mexico 1,575 3.5 Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,519 3.3 Telecom de Chile Chile 1,510 3.3 Banamex Mexico 1,423 3.1 Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,242 2.7 Enersis Chile 977 2.1 Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 884 1.9 Gerdau Brazil 848 1.9 Cemex Mexico 826 1.8 D & S Chile 805 1.8 Embratel Brazil 767 1.7 Soriana Mexico 720 1.6 Telesp Celular Brazil 678 1.5 Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 665 1.5 CANTV Venezuela 621 1.4 EMP Nacional Chile 468 1.0 FINANCIAL CALENDAR Year End 28 February 2001 For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited on 020-7545-6000. For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors' Plan and low cost ISA contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of the Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website located at www.deam-uk.com/uk/invest/ Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Investment Management Regulatory Organisation and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.
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