Monthly Report - October 1999

Morgan Grenfell Lat Amer Co Tst PLC 12 November 1999 The Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust supports the AITC its campaign Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER 1999 SUMMARY In sterling terms, the month of October produced a rise of 2.63% in the MSCI Latin America Free Index, reversing the negative trend of the third quarter. Most of this improvement came in the last two weeks of the month, as better local news and calmer US markets attracted non-dedicated investors into the region. The Latin American bond markets have shown evidence of renewed confidence since September, and equity investors now seem to have begun to position themselves to benefit from regional recovery in 2000. Mexico and Brazil were the strongest individual markets, up 12% and 8.6% respectively in the final fortnight of the month. October also brought us the end of ten years of Peronist rule in Argentina; the new President-elect is Fernando De La Rua of the Alliance Party. We expect economic management to remain broadly unchanged, with many challenges to be faced by the new administration. During October our NAV outperformed the index with a rise of 3.13%. This was largely due to our good weightings in Mexico and Brazil. Although the share price also slightly outperformed the index with a rise of 2.78%, the discount widened marginally. BRAZIL The Brazilian market's 3.8% rise was led by strong performances in the telecoms sector, where we are overweight, and in the banks. We believe that the Brazilian market will need to see better news in three areas before it can make meaningful progress. These catalysts would be further structural reform, economic growth and improved trade numbers. We continue to monitor progress on all three fronts. We think that the market may be too optimistic about growth prospects in 2000. Rising inflation combined with falling nominal interest rates has meant that real interest rates have fallen to a 5 year low of 12%. This may lead to some pick-up in economic activity but it is likely to be offset by the effect on consumer demand of the loss of purchasing power caused by inflation. The recent removal of reserve requirements on time deposits and the cut in financial taxes are an attempt to encourage lending growth. Brazil met the IMF target for its primary fiscal surplus for Q3 99. However, Brady Bond payments and the weaker currency meant that foreign reserves fell to their lowest level since April, and negotiations took place with the IMF to lower the reserve floor. We have maintained our portfolio holdings unchanged in the month. Our overall position remains slightly overweight, with a bias towards the telecoms sector, which we believe will benefit from consolidation, and banking, where Q3 results have been strong. MEXICO Our continuing overweight in Mexico boosted performance in October as the market was the strongest in the region following the Q3 sell off. The rally was led by a small number of stocks, particularly the banks and Telmex where we have good weightings. The banking sector was driven higher by restructuring plans put forward by the new deposit guarantee agency (IPAB) as well as by Banamex's announcement in its Q3 results that 100% of its past due loans are now covered by reserves. This is a watershed for an industry that has struggled to recover from the impact of the 1994 devaluation. Telmex has done well since its announcement of a joint venture with Microsoft to develop a Spanish language internet services provider. The result of the ruling PRI's first ever primary election to select the next Presidential candidate has come through since the month end. The favourite Francisco Labastida has emerged as the winner with a huge majority. His defeated rival, Roberto Madrazo, has announced he will remain within the PRI. We think that this further progress towards real democracy is extremely positive for Mexico going into the next presidential election. The Q3 earnings reporting season was strong overall in Mexico. We made no changes to our portfolio during the month. ARGENTINA The Argentine market benefited from a return of confidence leading up to the Presidential election that gave victory to Fernando de la Rua of the Alliance Party with more than 45% of the vote. He is likely to continue with the orthodox economic policies of the outgoing administration. In particular, the new finance minister will need to prepare a fiscal austerity package for 2000 in line with IMF requirements. Despite the better industrial production numbers that have come through recently, an austere budget and the uncompetitive currency are likely to mean that any economic recovery in 2000 will be subdued. We maintain our underweight stance in Argentina. CHILE Chile had a weak month in October despite GDP growth and export activity showing some positive signs. The weakness of the stock market was mainly due to a sharp sell off in telecoms major CTC, which is owned by Telefonica de Espana. Investors have been concerned about Telefonica's objective of removing certain high growth sectors (such as data and internet services) from its regional businesses and incorporating them into a separate company, without compensating minorities for the corresponding reduction in value of their holdings. We are still underweight in Chile but feel increasingly positive about the market. An improvement in export demand in the commodities sector and real interest rates of only 5% have set the stage for a pick-up in growth. There have also been strong rumours since the peso was floated last month that the remaining restrictions on foreign capital investment will be lifted. We would regard this as extremely positive news for the market which has suffered from a lack of interest from foreign investors. We will be travelling to Chile in the next few weeks where we hope to identify stocks which will benefit from the expected economic recovery in order to add them to our portfolio. ANDEAN MARKETS These markets were weak overall in October, with Peru and Venezuela both falling by around 5%. They have not yet benefited from renewed foreign investor interest. Peru has been affected by major cabinet changes as well as by news of a severe deterioration in the fiscal position in the year to August as the government sought to kick-start the delayed economic recovery. The market's major stock, Telefonica del Peru, was also weighed down by similar concerns to those which affected CTC in Chile. We maintain our overweight in Peru where we think recovery will begin to show through in Q4 earnings. The Venezuelan bond market has continued to do well in anticipation of a debt swap but we have not changed our zero weight in Venezuela. The newly-elected Constitutional Assembly is working on the approval of a draft constitution submitted by President Chavez and we find little to like as equity investors. Colombia's economy is still showing few signs of improvement; unemployment reached 20.7% in Q3 99 and retail sales continue to fall, although the peso has strengthened slightly since it was floated in September. Peace talks began again after millions of citizens took to the streets to call for an end to violence and kidnapping. We remain underweight. NET ASSET VALUE Fully diluted 31/10/99 30/09/99 31/10/99 30/09/99 72.6p 70.4p 77.3p 75.5p MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/10/99 30/09/99 Ordinary Shares 55.50p 54.00p Warrants 19.75p 18.25p Market exposure 31/10/99 30/09/99 EQUITIES Argentina 6.3 6.5 Brazil 32.2 31.5 Chile 9.3 10.0 Colombia 0.7 0.7 Mexico 44.9 44.3 Peru 3.9 4.3 Other 1.3 1.3 TOTAL PORTFOLIO 98.6 98.6 Net Current Assets 1.4 1.4 ------ ------- TOTAL 100.0 100.0 ------ ------- Based on total assets less current liabilities of £45.0 million (£43.6 million). GEARING Borrowings and Gearing at 31/10/99 30/09/99 £000's £000's NIL NIL ==== ==== LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £36.2 million equal to 81.7% of total portfolio) % of Country £000's portfolio Telmex Mexico 6,201 14.0 Tele Norte Leste Brazil 2,180 4.9 Banco de Galicia Argentina 1,931 4.4 Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,917 4.3 Telesp Brazil 1,783 4.0 Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 1,745 3.9 Tele Centro Sul Brazil 1,646 3.7 Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,417 3.2 Brahma Brazil 1,361 3.1 Banco Itau Brazil 1,336 3.0 Petrobras Brazil 1,334 3.0 Cemex Mexico 1,280 2.9 Soriana Mexico 1,205 2.7 Alfa Mexico 1,205 2.7 Femsa Mexico 1,070 2.4 Desc Mexico 1,061 2.4 Perez Companc Argentina 926 2.1 Telecom de Chile Chile 919 2.1 Cementos Lima Peru 883 2.0 Gerdau Brazil 865 2.0 Quinenco Chile 851 1.9 Kimberly-Clark Mexico 838 1.9 Gissa Mexico 792 1.8 Banamex Mexico 761 1.7 Grupo Carso Mexico 729 1.6 For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited on 0171-545-6000. For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors' Plan contact Mark Pope on 0171-545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com Issued by Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Investment Management Regulatory Organisation and manager of Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Morgan Grenfell Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.
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