Monthly Report

Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC 16 July 2003 Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE 2003 SUMMARY The Latin American markets were up 1.5% in June, underperforming the global emerging markets and global indices for the second month in a row. Year to date, however, Latin America continues to outperform both its emerging market peers and the U.S. markets with a stunning performance of 18.5% (MSCI Latin in sterling terms). Within Latin America, Argentina and Venezuela (again) were the strongest performers in June, up 11.4% and 10.8% in sterling terms respectively. Brazil, on the other hand, was the weakest performer in the region with the MSCI Brazil index down 0.6% for the month. Mexico, the largest weight in the Portfolio, outperformed the region and was up 2.9% for the month. The Latin sector performance was led by industrials and consumer stocks, with utilities and financials weakening. Regional performance was helped by stable debt spreads, stable-to-strengthening currencies, and a positive global equity market backdrop. Less positive were generally weaker commodity prices, led by gold and pulp. Year to date, Brazil and Argentina remain Latin America's strongest performers up 24.2% and 45.3% in sterling respectively. The net asset value slightly outperformed the index for the month, up 1.7%. As in May, the country allocation was slightly negative for the month, given the rise in Argentina and Venezuela, where we have no exposure. Stock selection was positive for the second month again aided by the holdings in Brazil. For the year to date, the net asset value is now up 14.5% versus the index of 18.5%. Brazil The Brazilian MSCI declined by 0.6% for the month despite the currency gaining over 3% against the pound. The equity market declined despite the Central Bank's 50 b.p. cut in the interest rate, which the market did not initially digest as positive given year over year inflation data. Expectations for inflation have moderated, however, and subsequently the Central Bank relaxed the target hinting that more interest rate cuts are in the offing. Despite signs of continued weak economic growth, Lula's popularity remains high as do expectations for continued progress on the government's reform agenda. Also, June saw much regulatory noise surrounding the fixed-line telephony and electricity sectors with electricity sector stock performance (up strongly in May) particularly hard hit and with telco tariffs finally better than expected. With respect to the stock level performance, an unexpected large order of aircraft sent Embraer flying, and was one of the largest contributors to the monthly performance. Other large cap gainers included steel companies CSN and Gerdau and Petrobras, all owned in the Portfolio. We are overweight Brazil, at 45.8% versus 41.8% with a growing concentration in names which benefit from a strengthening currency. Mexico Mexico was the best performing large cap market for the month, up 2.9% in sterling, with stocks such as Telmex, Televisa, Wal-Mex, Cemex, America Movil and Femsa all contributing positively. The Mexican peso was off against the pound, by 2.5%. Domestic interest rates are at near historic lows, and inflation remains not a threat, however economic growth remains stagnant. Industrial production fell nearly 5% year on year through April. Most of the political focus was on the upcoming congressional elections slated for 6 July, as the PRI appeared to be gaining ground over the PAN. We remain overweight Mexico on the premise of solid companies at historically low valuations and prospects for better growth in the near term. Chile The Chilean MSCI slightly outperformed the regional index for the month, up 1.6% in sterling terms. The Portfolio is markedly underweight the index, at 3.5% versus 10.1%. The Chilean peso strengthened slightly for the month, up 0.7% and May's economic recovery data came in better than the seasonally weak April. The Central Bank left rates on hold, at 2.8%, as inflation moderated. The government pushed forward with a tax increase agenda to support the fiscal accounts. The biggest corporate event was the US $2 billion Enersis capital increase. Our holdings remain focussed on the largest domestic bank and fixed line telephony company and given liquidity factors we are less inclined to add measurably to the country. Argentina The Argentine MSCI was up strongly for the month, up 11.4% and leading the region, despite the announcement of capital controls late in the month. The currency continued to strengthen against the pound, up 0.6%, unfazed by the currency announcement, as Kirchner's popularity is high and economic activity on the rebound. The government's exchange decree is an attempt to deter speculative flows and to maintain a competitive exchange rate. The first quarter GDP rose by over 5% year over year, as an expansive monetary policy, improving tradeables sector and import substitution driving the recovery. Despite decent headline figures, the Trust remain uninvested in Argentina directly, as the Portfolio Manager considers the risk of investing too high. Instead, the Trust will benefit indirectly via its holdings in companies which own Argentine assets such as Petrobras, Coca-Cola Femsa and Ambev. Venezuela / Peru The Venezuelan market remained very strong in June, up 10.8% as continued local share conversion to ADR's was allowed. Fundamentally, the Chavez government bought itself some fiscal latitude, as they sold bonds to Quatar and China and oil prices remained strong. There is no evidence of a calming on the political side, and despite expectations of currency regime modifications, the black market rate hovers around 2,500 to the dollar. Expectations of a severe GDP contraction for the year are growing, as is the possibility of further unrest. We have no exposure to this market for reasons that are clear. The Peruvian market fell for the month of June, off by 1.2% in sterling. Equity market sentiment has hurt by ongoing political concerns and wider debt spreads. The political situation remains volatile, with President Toledo's popularity falling further to a historic low of 11%, widespread strikes and another cabinet reshuffle. Our sole holding is a mining exporter of gold and silver, Buenaventura which contributed positively to the Trust's performance for the month. NET ASSET VALUE Fully diluted 30/06/03 31/05/03 30/06/03 31/05/03 66.6p 65.5p 73.7p 72.8p MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 30/06/03 31/05/03 Ordinary Shares 55.75p 54.50p Warrants 9.75p 8.75p NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £31.8 million (£31.3 million). Market exposure 30/06/03 31/05/03 % % EQUITIES Brazil 45.8 46.6 Chile 3.5 4.2 Mexico 47.8 45.6 Peru 1.8 2.1 TOTAL PORTFOLIO 98.9 98.5 Net Current Assets 1.1 1.5 -------- -------- TOTAL 100.0 100.0 -------- -------- Based on total assets of £34.9 million (£34.4 million). GEARING Gearing at 30/06/03 31/05/03 9.5% 9.7% ==== ==== LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £34.4 million equal to 99.7% of total portfolio) Country £000's % of portfolio Petrobras Brazil 4,461 12.9 Telmex Mexico 3,484 10.1 Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 3,257 9.4 Ambev Brazil 2,116 6.1 G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,918 5.6 Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,815 5.3 Banco Itau Brazil 1,704 4.9 Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 1,679 4.9 Tele Norte Leste Brazil 1,673 4.9 Cemex Mexico 1,661 4.8 America Movil Mexico 1,466 4.3 Brasil Telecom Brazil 1,380 4.0 Femsa Mexico 1,152 3.3 Grupo Modelo Mexico 844 2.4 Bco Bradesco Brazil 832 2.4 Gerdau Brazil 819 2.4 Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 730 2.1 Telecom de Chile Chile 686 2.0 Minas Buenaventura Peru 638 1.9 Pao de Acucar Brazil 524 1.5 Sider Nacional Brazil 451 1.3 Bco Santander Chile 434 1.3 Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 334 1.0 Aracruz Celulose Brazil 200 0.6 Votorantim Celulos Brazil 117 0.3 For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited on 020-7545-0520. For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors' Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Plan (a plan through which shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be found on the Deutsche Investment Trust Managers website located at www.deutsche-its.co.uk. Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, the price of shares and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile. This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange EADAIRLIV
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