Monthly Report

Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC 12 March 2003 Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2003 SUMMARY The MSCI Latin American equity index rose 2.0% in sterling in February, against the backdrop of weak global markets and fears of an imminent war with Iraq. The major Latin currencies did well against the pound in February, contributing to the region's positive performance for the month. Argentina and Venezuela were again the big winners, with the MSCI index in each up over 16% and 18% respectively. In contrast with January, Mexico outperformed Brazil, up 1.9% in sterling terms, while Brazil was basically flat for the month. The Trust was up 1.5% for the month as performance was again largely driven by our country allocation. In particular, the lack of Argentine and Venezuelan holdings, while justified in the manager's opinion, hurt performance again for the month. On a positive note, stock selection, particularly in Brazil, again helped performance for the month. We see global risk aversion continuing, as the lack of a united front against Iraq hurts sentiment and the prospects for a quick and successful war grow dimmer. In this environment, investors are likely to refrain from taking on undue risk until after the fallout from the war. Brazil The Brazilian MSCI was up 0.1% in sterling in February, with the currency strengthening 2.6% versus the pound. The Central Bank raised rates again this month, by 100 b.p., although less than expected as inflation expectations continue to rise. The equity market decoupled significantly from a rising bond market as the C bond continued to strengthen. The external sector continues to do well. Several Brazilian companies were successful in tapping the international debt markets, which represents a welcome easing of global worries over Brazil's debt situation. On the political front, February marked the start of legislative activities in the Lower House and Senate, and the President announced several changes to the Central Bank's board. President Lula and his team continue to signal the right noises to the market, however very little progress has been made. The work on long-delayed reforms, particularly social security and tax reforms, remains to be done, as President Lula and his party are still drafting proposed legislation in order to achieve promptness and smooth passage once the reforms arrive in Congress. On the economy, February's announcement by Finance Ministry Palocci of an increase in the primary surplus target for 2003 (from 3.75% to 4.25% of GDP) and the Central Bank decision to tighten monetary policy again were the most significant events. These orthodox economic policies are a further attempt by the Lula administration to support the real, reassure investors and diminish the inflationary pass-through of the weaker real in 2002. Higher inflation remains the main concern on investors' and policy makers' minds. Despite the market's inferior performance for the month, stock selection in Brazil contributed a positive 56 b.p to performance. In particular, the Trust's holdings in CVRD, VCP, Gerdau and Aracruz were all positive contributors for the month. Petrobras, Telenorte and Pao de Azucar were the key detractors from performance. The Trust is now slightly overweight Brazil, with a continued emphasis on the defensive stocks, namely the exporters, the banks and the fixed line telcos. We continue to be concerned with continuing near-term volatility, especially in the event of further risk-aversion, to which Brazil is vulnerable, once any conflict with Iraq breaks out. Mexico The Mexican MSCI rose nearly 2% for the month in sterling, with the peso strengthening 3.6% against the pound. There are some signs that inflation expectations in Mexico may finally be beginning to peak after the Central Bank increased the Corto in February for the third time over the past two months. The Mexican government also released the 2002 data for the balance of payments and economic growth. The trade deficit at US $8 billion, came in lower than expected with the current account deficit hovering at 2.2% of GDP, also a good performance. FDI reached $13.6 billion, quite strong if we compare to 2001 ex-Citibank acquisition of Banacci. Full year GDP growth was 0.9% for 2002, fuelled by a nearly 2% gain in the fourth quarter, a modest improvement from the 0.3% decline in 2001. On balance, Mexico's external fundamentals remain strong, however we still see economic activity as fragile. December's industrial production and retail sales figures were released which continued to show very anaemic growth. On a more positive note, the country successfully placed a 12-year bond at the end of the month which was nearly two times oversubscribed and resulted in a spread of 312bps over comparable U.S. Treasuries, the lowest ever for such a maturity. Corporate results for the quarter have started to report and are generally a bit weaker than expected (namely Cemex and the industrials), although Telmex was in line and Walmex beat expectations. In the Trust, stock selection was largely neutral, as the positive effects from the overweight position in Walmex and underweight positions in TMX and American Movil (which were down for the month) were offset by our holdings in certain beverage stocks like Modelo, Femsa and Coca-Cola Femsa, which were down for the month. In general, while Mexico's economy still awaits a more decisive upturn in the U.S. economy, the market remains our top pick for 2003 and accordingly, our biggest overweight in the region on the more solid economic prospects and company fundamentals. Chile The Chilean MSCI closed up 4.7% for the month in sterling, and the currency gained 2.8% against the pound. The Trust's weighting in Chile, at roughly 4%, is still markedly underweight the benchmark of over 9%. Stock selection was neutral for the month, with the positive performance by the telephone company CTC neutralizing the downturn in Banco Santander and the fixed line company Entel. Some of the important economic indicators released in February suggest a tentative pick up in the economy, however GDP growth of 2% for 2002 was largely disappointing. We remain underweight this market, however would look to add to the bank and CTC as a safer haven in a likely war with Iraq. Argentina The Argentine market led the region again in February, up over 16% in sterling terms. The peso appreciated nearly 5% against the pound. Politics remains the key risk going forward, as no clear poll leader is evident in the run up to the April 27 presidential elections. Economic data continues to point to a recovery off the bottom, and the Duhalde government has taken measures to liberalise the currency controls and assist the banking system. We have chosen to stay out of this market until a clear political course is outlined, and prospects for Argentine companies are clear. Peru/ Venezuela The Peruvian market was up again in February, +2.7% in sterling, however the Trust's sole Peruvian holding, Buenaventura, fell during the month as investors took profits in the stock. Buenaventura remains one of the world's lowest cost gold exporters and we continue to like the stock, particularly as a defensive play. The Venezuelan market rebounded over 18% for the month, with the currency up nearly 26% for the month versus sterling, as authorities fixed the exchange rate at VEB 1598 versus the US dollar, 17% stronger the previous level of VEB 1918. Chavez continued to exert his control. The government announced the introduction of retail price controls. The national strike broke down, with oil production increasingly slowly off its strike lows. The government also moved against its opposition, arresting the principle strike leaders. Political tension remains high, and there does not appear any investments worthy of the risk/return trade-off. NET ASSET VALUE Fully diluted 28/02/03 31/01/03 28/02/03 31/01/03 53.7p 52.9p 63.5p 62.9p MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 28/02/03 31/01/03 Ordinary Shares 42.75p 42.25p Warrants 7.50p 7.50p NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £25.7 million (£25.3 million). Market exposure 28/02/03 31/01/03 % % EQUITIES Brazil 42.1 40.1 Chile 4.3 4.2 Mexico 48.9 49.9 Peru 2.8 3.0 TOTAL PORTFOLIO 98.1 97.2 Net Current Assets 1.9 2.8 -------- -------- TOTAL 100.0 100.0 -------- -------- Based on total assets of £28.8 million (£28.3 million). GEARING Gearing at 28/02/03 31/01/03 12.4% 12.0% ==== ==== LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £27.8 million equal to 98.4% of total portfolio) Country £000's % of portfolio Telmex Mexico 3,377 11.9 Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 2,576 9.1 Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 2,547 9.0 Petrobras Brazil 2,483 8.8 G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 2,003 7.1 America Movil Mexico 1,130 4.0 Ambev Brazil 1,096 3.9 Grupo Televisa Mexico 987 3.5 Grupo Modelo Mexico 964 3.4 Brasil Telecom Brazil 948 3.4 Cemex Mexico 935 3.3 Tele Norte Leste Brazil 884 3.1 Minas Buenaventura Peru 800 2.8 Femsa Mexico 791 2.8 Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 758 2.7 Banco Itau Brazil 719 2.5 Aracruz Celulose Brazil 693 2.5 Telecom de Chile Chile 636 2.3 Pao de Acucar Brazil 606 2.1 Votorantim Celolose Brazil 604 2.1 Sider Nacional Brazil 544 1.9 Gerdau Brazil 535 1.9 Bco Bradesco Brazil 486 1.7 Bco Santander Chile 399 1.4 Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 349 1.2 FINANCIAL CALENDAR Preliminary Announcement of results 29 April 2003 For further information, contact Mark Pope at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited on 020-7545-0520. For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors' Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Plan (a plan through which shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be found on the Deutsche Investment Trust Managers website located at www.deutsche-its.co.uk. Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Financial Services Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, the price of shares and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile. This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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