Monthly Report

Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC 14 February 2002 DEUTSCHE LATIN AMERICAN COMPANIES TRUST PLC REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2002 SUMMARY Latin American markets staged further gains in January in a month dominated by the Argentine devaluation and its aftermath. The MSCI Latin American index rose by 2.6% in sterling terms, led by Mexico, in anticipation of its debt being upgraded to investment grade status by Standard and Poor's. The smaller markets also performed well, led by double digit gains in Colombia and Peru. However, the long anticipated devaluation in Argentina brought about a 20.2% fall in that market in sterling terms, and contributed to significant market weakness in Brazil. Within emerging markets, Latin America's January rise was less than that recorded in Asia; the wider MSCI Emerging Markets Free index rose by 6.3% over the month. Nevertheless, Latin America outperformed developed markets: MSCI World fell by 0.2% in sterling terms, largely ignoring tentative signs of economic recovery. Our performance was good in January; our NAV rose by 4.3%, well ahead of the index. We benefited from our zero weight in the collapsing Argentine market, as well as from our overweight position in Mexico. In particular, we benefited from a strong rise in shares of industrial conglomerate Gissa, as well as our overweights in BBVA Bancomer and Coca Cola Femsa, both of which did well in January. Our share price rose by 3.9% over the month, just behind the NAV, so that the discount widened slightly. We remain positive on the outlook for regional equities in 2002. Although Argentina faces the immense social, political and economic challenges of life after convertibility, these difficulties should have a limited impact on the rest of the region. Lower oil prices and a more competitive currency in Brazil should help the trade balance, while interest rates are likely to be cut ahead of the upcoming Presidential elections. A worldwide cyclical recovery should benefit the whole region, while low global interest rates, higher investor risk appetite and attractive valuations are all factors in Latin America's favour. MEXICO The Mexican market was strong in January, shrugging off weaker U.S. markets and supported by ongoing peso stability. Mid-month, the news came out that rating agency Fitch had granted Mexico's debt investment grade status, preparing the ground for an upgrade by Standard & Poor's which finally came through in early February. Interestingly, S&P cited Mexico's growing economic convergence with the US, improved debt ratios, greater liquidity and a better fiscal/monetary policy mix as factors in its favour, while listing its weaknesses as a large consolidated public sector fiscal deficit, a narrow tax base which limits government spending, and the weak outlook for important structural reforms such as liberalisation of the electricity and oil sectors. In our opinion the key points to watch for the market short term are any uptick in industrial production, which was still negative in November and December, and the behaviour of inflation. December CPI was only 0.1% month on month, bringing annual inflation to only 4.4% for 2001, the lowest since 1968. However, the impact of the 2002 budget, including the readjustment of administered prices and the effects of the tax reform, produced a sharp increase to 0.9% in January. As a result, the Central Bank tightened monetary policy last week. We believe that Mexico has the soundest fundamentals of any country in the region and should benefit from an eventual US recovery, as soon as interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus take effect. We remain overweight Mexico, although we think much of the good news has been priced into the market and have trimmed some of our largest positions there after good performance. BRAZIL Brazil declined by 4.2% in sterling terms, as the market gave up some of its strong fourth quarter gains. In particular, the Real showed some weakness on Argentine contagion, and IPCA inflation numbers were poor for both December and January. The January figure brings 12 month inflation to 7.6%, well above the government's 2001 year end target of 4-6%, let alone the 3.5% 2002 target. As a result, interest rates were kept on hold once again. Industrial production fell by 6% year on year in December, showing the effect of these high rates on growth, although certain manufacturers are reporting more encouraging signs. Also upsetting the market were major announcements affecting the electricity sector which on the whole were interpreted negatively by the market (as meaning possible price controls, state intervention, and slow privatisation), although since then the presentation of the measures has revealed more positive aspects to the plan. In politics, we continued to see interest in early polls which heightened speculation over the role that Roseana Sarney will play in the presidential race. However, a recent rise in President Cardoso's popularity and the likely ending of electricity rationing augur better for the success of the government candidate. We believe that politics aside, the major risks to the Brazilian market will continue to be the weak situation in Argentina and disappointing inflation numbers. However, we believe that inflation will ease, allowing interest rates to fall early in the year; valuations are relatively attractive after the recent falls and therefore the market should present good upside. We are neutral Brazil with a bias to add once we feel that the market has consolidated. CHILE The Chilean market weakened by 2.2% in sterling terms during January; Argentine contagion affected the peso so that it sold off from its year end level of P660 to around P680 by the month end. Shares of Argentine-exposed Chilean companies such as utility Enersis and Coke bottler Andina also declined sharply. The Central Bank cut rates by 50bp to 3%, as inflation remained benign and growth fragile, despite some seasonal recovery in employment; annual inflation was only 2.6% in December, below the government's 3% forecast, indicating weak internal demand. Activity data also came in weaker than expected in both November and December; December industrial production fell by 2% year on year, with the decline led by durable goods. However, more encouragingly, FDI reached US$5.5bn in 2001, almost 50% more than the previous year. The easing cycle in Chile is already well established which should allow some recovery in domestic consumption this year, and stronger copper prices should provide a boost to the export sector. We do not believe that the Argentine crisis should cause any lasting damage to Chile and retain a small overweight. ARGENTINA The Argentine market led the region down in January; it fell by 20.1% in sterling terms following the devaluation of the peso. Stocks had moved up strongly in local terms towards the end of the year as investors sought a hedge against devaluation. Early in January, the new Duhalde administration moved to a two-tier exchange rate and kept banking controls in place. After a series of new policy announcements and bank holidays, the peso has now been fully floated but the lack of liquidity in the system, combined with some intervention by the Central Bank, means that the current market rate of P2 to the US dollar is unrepresentative. We believe that the currency is likely to weaken further when all banking restrictions are loosened; in particular, our concerns centre around inflation and the 2002 budget, as well as domestic politics. The impact of the devaluation already began to pressure consumer prices in January, although with unemployment of over 20%, wage increases should be relatively contained. Tax collection will have been significantly depressed due to the collapse of consumption in recent months, leading to a re-examination of the assumptions contained in the budget. The Finance Minister is currently talking to the IMF about possible new support, but any conditions are likely to be much tighter than in the past. Under the current exchange rate, most Argentine companies would have negative equity if they honoured their borrowings. We retain our zero weighting in Argentina, where significant challenges remain. ANDEAN MARKETS Among the smaller markets, Colombia and Peru were strong in January, both rising by around 12% in sterling terms. Colombia rallied as the Central Bank cut rates again in the face of weakening economic activity and a breakdown in peace talks was avoided. We expect the next few months to be marked by a buildup of news about this summer's presidential election. The peace process will continue to be a key issue for Colombians; we have already seen a substantial rise in popular support for the more hardline policies espoused by candidate Alvaro Uribe. Peru rallied sharply on hopes of an economic recovery, as GDP rose by 4.1% in December, and a successful US$930m Eurobond issue allowed the government to swap some of its old Brady debt. Venezuela rose by 4.4%, as political concerns continued: President Chavez faced popular demonstrations and reserve losses continued at the Central Bank, so that the bolivar remained under pressure. The recent Carnival weekend brought the unexpected announcement that the government was to float the bolivar, which is generally estimated to be around 30% overvalued. This will provide an immediate boost to fiscal revenues, but if inflation is not kept under control, purchasing power of Chavez's key supporters, the poor, could be eroded. We are underweight the region, with a small position in Venezuelan telecoms provider CANTV which has a strong free cash flow yield and trades at extremely cheap valuations. NET ASSET VALUE Fully diluted 31/01/02 31/12/01 31/01/02 31/12/01 84.1p 80.6p 87.4p 84.7p MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 31/01/02 31/12/01 Ordinary Shares 67.25p 64.75p Warrants 13.75p 12.75p NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £40.1 million (£38.5 million). Market exposure 31/01/02 31/12/01 % % EQUITIES Brazil 29.2 30.5 Chile 9.5 10.3 Mexico 41.0 38.7 TOTAL PORTFOLIO 79.7 79.5 Net Current Assets 20.3 20.5 -------- -------- TOTAL 100.0 100.0 -------- -------- Based on total assets of £50.8 million (£48.8 million). GEARING Gearing at 31/01/02 31/12/01 26.4% 26.8% ==== ==== LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £36.3 million equal to 89.6% of total portfolio) Country £000's % of portfolio Telmex 6,059 14.9 Mexico Petrobras 3,461 8.5 Brazil Wal-Mart de Mexico 2,266 5.6 Mexico G.F BBVA-Bancomer 2,053 5.1 Mexico Banco Itau 1,899 4.7 Brazil Ambev 1,685 4.1 Brazil America Movil 1,597 3.9 Brazil Grupo Televisa 1,492 3.7 Mexico Grupo Modelo 1,492 3.7 Mexico Vale do Rio Doce 1,433 3.5 Brazil Cemex 1,346 3.3 Mexico Coca-Cola Femsa 1,168 2.9 Mexico Eletrobras 1,098 2.7 Brazil Telecom de Chile 1,044 2.6 Chile Tele Norte Leste 959 2.4 Brazil Consorcio Ara 927 2.3 Mexico Itausa Inv 850 2.1 Brazil Kimberly-Clark de Mexico 791 2.0 Mexico Pao de Acucar 777 1.9 Brazil Femsa 763 1.9 Mexico D & S 716 1.8 Chile Enersis 655 1.6 Chile Copel 631 1.5 Brazil Gerdau 606 1.5 Brazil Brasil Telecom 577 1.4 Brazil FINANCIAL CALENDAR Year End 28 February 2002 For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited on 020-7545-6000. For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors' Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Scheme (a recently established scheme through which shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website located at www.deam-uk.com/uk/invest/. Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Financial Services Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/ or volatile. This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
UK 100

Latest directors dealings