Monthly Report

Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC 18 March 2002 Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2002 SUMMARY February was a good month overall for Latin American markets: the index rose by 3.2% in sterling terms, led by a strong rally in Brazil (up 14.1% after an interest rate cut), and Mexico was finally awarded a coveted investment grade rating by Standard & Poor's. The region outperformed the rest of emerging markets, as MSCI EMF rose by only 1.3%, and also the developed markets of MSCI World which were affected by the fallout from the Enron collapse. This strong relative performance comes despite the continuing policy standstill in Argentina and a devaluation in Venezuela. Our own performance was good in February, when our NAV rose by 4.3%, ahead of the index. This was due to good stock selection in Mexico and our underweight in Argentina. For our financial year ending 28 February, our NAV fell by 1.8% against an index decline of 2.7%. This compares well in absolute terms with the decline of 13.6% in the developed markets of MSCI World over the same period. We maintain our positive outlook on Latin America for the year ahead: though a certain amount of good news has been priced into the Mexican market, debt spreads continue to fall and there are signs that the US recovery may have already begun. Brazil looks set to perform relatively well as falling inflation will allow further interest rate cuts and politics, though potentially volatile ahead of October's presidential election, should not derail an incipient economic recovery. We have been moving steadily to increase our Brazil weighting over the past six weeks and intend to continue as opportunities arise. MEXICO Mexico traded down slightly in February (falling by 2.6%), as the market had largely discounted the long-awaited S&P upgrade, which was eventually granted a year after Moody's ratings changed. Stronger than anticipated headline inflation in January caused by public sector tariff increases made the Central Bank tighten monetary policy in a precautionary move. However, inflation data for February has been much more benign, reflecting steep declines in food prices. Industrial production and export figures continue to look weak, but indications of an upturn in the US manufacturing sector are causing expectations to improve. During the month, several of our more cyclical holdings such as autoparts producer Grupo Industrial Saltillo performed strongly. Our overweight position in Coca Cola Femsa served us well, as it announced a significant real price increase in its territories that will boost EBITDA growth to almost 15%. We have adopted a cautious strategy, reducing some names which we think are now closer to fair value and adding to laggards such as Cemex, which will benefit from both a US and a Mexican recovery. BRAZIL The Brazilian market led the region higher in February, as positive newsflow attracted domestic and foreign buyers back into the market. The end of electricity rationing was formally announced and government minister Jose Serra declared his candidacy for the Presidential elections. Moody's also raised its outlook on Brazil. The key event was the surprise decision to cut interest rates by 25bps to 18.75% on 20 February. Although there has been some deceleration in inflation, with February IPCA showing a month on month increase of 0.4%, the 12-month figure is still high at 7.5%. The Central Bank now seems to have set its sights on the less ambitious goal of bringing inflation down to the top of its target range this year. We should watch the trend in oil prices, as higher prices would begin to pressure Brazilian inflation again. Despite some volatility in the market in recent days, caused in particular by a row over corruption investigations into presidential candidate Roseana Sarney's husband, the currency has stayed firm and we believe that Brazil can still show good upside from here. In February we saw a strong rally in many of the most liquid names in Brazil; from our portfolio, Banco Itau, Petrobras and Copel did particularly well. Many of the smaller telecoms names continued to underperform, affected by concerns over liquidity and refinancing. CHILE The Chilean market rose by 0.4% in February, supported by a further 50bps rate cut to 5.5%. The rate cut was triggered by weaker than expected economic data for December and recent deflationary trends. There are signs of recovery in the economy but they are still patchy. However the Chilean currency has strengthened after several months of Argentina-induced weakness, given the prospects of a global recovery in demand for Chilean-produced commodities such as copper. Despite the continued problems at corporates such as Enersis and Andina which are exposed to Argentina, shares in retailer DyS outperformed as it released stronger earnings and the outlook for consumption improved. We have reduced our weighting in CTC after a period of relatively good performance as we believe Brazilian shares offer more upside at this point. ARGENTINA The Argentine market fell heavily in February, down by 13.7% in sterling terms as the government allowed the currency to float freely despite ongoing restrictions on bank deposits. Economic data remained very weak, with industrial production declining by 18.4% year on year in January. The government has announced a new economic plan and reached a revenue-sharing agreement with the Provinces who will in turn be required to reduce their fiscal deficits by 60%. However, budget assumptions are far from credible and any new IMF financing is still far away. There are ongoing rumours of international banks stepping in to rescue Argentina's largest independent privately-owned bank, Galicia, which was hit hard by the crisis. We are content to remain on the sidelines until the exchange rate and the direction of the economy becomes clearer. ANDEAN MARKETS Of the smaller markets, Peru ended February in positive territory, up 5.8% led by gold producer Buenaventura on rising gold prices, and banking group Credicorp on hopes of economic recovery. December GDP figures for Peru showed 4.1% growth year on year, led by the mining and energy sector. However, both the Colombian and Venezuelan markets fell heavily in sterling terms, down 12.8% and 10.7% respectively. Colombia was affected by fallout from the ending of peace talks with the FARC guerrilla group and re-taking of the demilitarised zone by the Colombian army. Polls currently show independent candidate Alvaro Uribe, who has a more hardline approach to the peace process, could win the presidential race in the first round. Venezuela surprised the market in February with a decision to float the local currency, the Bolivar. After months of lower oil prices, ongoing capital flight and high government spending, there was an urgent need to boost the country's finances. There will be an immediate gain from the devaluation, which is of the order of 30% against the dollar, as oil revenues will be worth more in local currency terms. President Chavez also announced plans to reduce the oil price assumed in the budget, and to trim spending. The initial reaction by the bond and stock markets was positive, despite ongoing political noise including forceful criticisms levelled at Chavez by several senior members of the Armed Forces. We added a small position in telecom provider CANTV last month, which is trading at a highly depressed valuation. NET ASSET VALUE Fully diluted 28/02/02 31/01/02 28/02/02 31/01/02 87.7p 84.1p 90.3p 87.4p MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 28/02/02 31/01/02 Ordinary Shares 70.75p 67.25p Warrants 14.25p 13.75p NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £41.9 million (£40.1 million). Market exposure 28/02/02 31/01/02 % % EQUITIES Brazil 32.7 29.2 Chile 8.2 9.5 Mexico 39.4 41.0 Venezuela 0.5 - TOTAL PORTFOLIO 80.8 79.7 Net Current Assets 19.2 20.3 -------- -------- TOTAL 100.0 100.0 -------- -------- Based on total assets of £52.5 million (£50.8 million). GEARING Gearing at 28/02/02 31/01/02 25.3% 26.4% ==== ==== LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £38.2 million equal to 89.9% of total portfolio) Country £000's % of portfolio Telmex 6,037 14.2 Mexico Petrobras 4,305 10.1 Brazil Banco Itau 2,289 5.4 Brazil Wal-Mart de Mexico 2,249 5.3 Mexico G.F BBVA-Bancomer 1,960 4.6 Mexico Ambev 1,783 4.2 Brazil Vale do Rio Doce 1,642 3.9 Brazil Cemex 1,554 3.7 Mexico Grupo Modelo 1,475 3.5 Mexico America Movil 1,459 3.4 Brazil Grupo Televisa 1,441 3.4 Mexico Eletrobras 1,250 2.9 Brazil Tele Norte Leste 1,149 2.7 Brazil Coca-Cola Femsa 1,137 2.7 Mexico Itausa Inv 992 2.3 Brazil Consorcio Ara 927 2.2 Mexico Kimberly-Clark de Mexico 897 2.1 Mexico Pao de Acucar 830 2.0 Brazil Femsa 747 1.8 Mexico D & S 728 1.7 Chile Gerdau 697 1.6 Brazil Telecom de Chile 692 1.6 Chile Copel 690 1.6 Brazil Brasil Telecom 657 1.6 Brazil Enersis 576 1.4 Chile FINANCIAL CALENDAR Preliminary Results Announced 22 April 2002 For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited on 020-7545-6000. For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors' Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Scheme (a recently established scheme through which shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website located at www.deam-uk.com/uk/invest/. Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Financial Services Authority and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/ or volatile. This information is provided by RNS The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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