Monthly Report

Deutsche Latin American Cos Tst PLC 9 October 2001 Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust REPORT FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER 2001 SUMMARY The terrorist attacks of September 11th had a significant negative impact on all global equity markets. Latin America was no exception and was hit particularly hard as investors sought to reduce their exposure to more risky asset classes. The MSCI Latin America Free Index declined by 17.1% in sterling terms during September, led down by Argentina which fell by 24.5%. The smaller markets significantly outperformed due to their lower liquidity. Emerging equity markets fell in line with Latin America, with MSCI EMF declining by 16.6% over the month. In general, the region did not benefit from the rally seen in the last week of September in developed markets, which left MSCI World down just 9.9% in sterling terms despite earlier heavy falls. Our NAV fell by less than the index over the month, declining by 15.4% in sterling terms, due to our zero weighting in Argentina and relatively good stock selection. However the share price declined by 21% as the discount widened in common with most other emerging markets trusts. Although uncertainty prevails over the economic, financial and political implications of a conflict, one thing is generally agreed: growth will be less strong than previously forecast. The US was already in a slowdown before the attack: consumers, concerned by job losses and weak equity markets, were behaving more cautiously. Since the attacks, consumer confidence is likely to have suffered further, leading to a potential collapse in US import demand. Suddenly, Latin American exporters will face less demand and consequently lower prices for their goods. At the same time, international companies are reducing capital expenditure to boost their own cash flow and pay down debt. This means that foreign direct investment in Latin America is likely to be much less this year and next than was expected. And a rise in risk aversion means that yields on risky assets, such as Latin American government debt, have risen. The region's dependence on external capital is a significant negative in this environment. However, it remains to be seen how deep and prolonged the recession will become. On the positive side, policy makers worldwide have been proactive in cutting interest rates and there is already more fiscal stimulus planned in the US. As a result, we believe that a recovery will emerge in the first half of next year, from which Latin America, and in particular Mexico, stand to benefit. There is no doubt that valuations in our key markets have become more attractive of late, and even factoring in a much more negative earnings outlook we believe that there is value to be found. Many major companies have been buying back their own shares in recent weeks, which we take to be a positive signal. We also feel that the recent weakness in the Mexican peso has given us a more attractive entry point and therefore we have been increasing our position in favoured stocks at these levels. Overall, after several months of respositioning the portfolio, Mexico is now our largest overweight among the markets in which we invest. ARGENTINA The Argentine market fell by 24.5% in September, the weakest of all the regional markets. The reasons for this steep decline were firstly the more negative external scenario, which caused the spread at which Argentine bonds trade over US treasuries to widen considerably, as the likelihood of growth receded and risk aversion grew. However, there have also been negative developments on the domestic front. Economic data continue to indicate a dire situation, with activity slowing and tax collection falling steeply year on year. Under the zero deficit policy, this requires a further fiscal adjustment, which in turn is likely to bring further economic contraction. The proximity of the elections on October 14th is also encouraging a certain amount of loose talk from politicians opposed to Cavallo about alternative policies, including debt restructuring, that have alarmed the markets. We remain zero weighted in Argentina. BRAZIL The Brazilian currency, the Real, touched new lows in September as concerns grew about Brazil's ability to finance its current account deficit in an environment of rising risk aversion and lower foreign direct investment. We saw a shift in Central Bank policy as interest rates were kept on hold at 19% while an attempt was made to defend the currency by reducing liquidity in the banking system, which had some success. The optimistic view is that Brazil's trade balance will rapidly turn around given the weaker currency and weaker internal demand, which will also dampen inflationary pressures. We are, however, concerned that Brazil's deteriorating debt dynamics (due to currency weakness) and potential inflationary pass through, might make a more severe adjustment necessary, which would depress growth still further. As a result, we have become more negative in our outlook for Brazil; despite the significant correction we have seen in the market, much of this has so far been currency related. We have further reduced positions in several stocks, as we consider the earnings outlook to be relatively weak, and potential downside risk still high, despite apparently attractive valuations. MEXICO Mexico also suffered a heavy fall of 16.7% in September, due to its exposure to trade with the US, and the falling oil price, as well as evidence of an already stagnant domestic economy. Retail sales figures are now much weaker and industrial production continues to be in decline. The seemingly invulnerable peso depreciated by almost 4% against the US dollar and is now trading at a level of P9.6. Little progress also appears to have been made on the long-awaited fiscal reform. The weakest shares were those with heavy US exposure, such as the autoparts sector, particularly after conglomerate San Luis defaulted on its debt; airport operator ASUR, retailer Elektra and copper producer Grupo Mexico. However, we saw significant buyback programmes in place at companies such as Telmex, America Movil, Walmex and Cemex, which we find an encouraging sign. We also believe that Mexico's economy is fundamentally sound, which allows it more policy flexibility than most in the region and that it will benefit from the interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus packages in the US. We have therefore added to our existing holdings in Mexico where we believe that the companies' prospects are sound and valuations attractive. CHILE Chile suffered from further currency weakness in September as the peso depreciated by 5.0% against the US dollar and copper prices also declined. The Chilean index declined by 18.6%, for once giving the lie to its safe haven status. Falls were greatest among the most liquid ADR stocks. However, we continue to like the Chilean market; economic data recently released has confirmed the ongoing, if slow recovery and recent reforms to capital markets and the labour laws have been passed, ending months of stalemate. We will be visiting Chile at the end of October to talk directly to company management but meanwhile we have taken advantage of recent weakness to top up some of our Chilean positions. ANDEAN MARKETS Peru outperformed in September as the rally in the gold price boosted interest in the shares of miner Buenaventura. The Peruvian government has also announced a series of economic measures designed to encourage growth, which have been generally well-received. We are also visiting Peru this month in order to test the mood of company management and the outlook for corporate earnings growth. The AES bid for telephone company CANTV in Venezuela made the market the region's best performer for the month. We sold our holding just ahead of the formal tender offer, achieving a price close to that contained in the bid because of our scepticism that the offer would be improved either by AES or another bidder (Telefonica, the most likely, having recently pulled out of its offer for CRT Celular in Brazil). Colombia was also relatively resilient despite the weaker oil price. However, both these countries now face a more difficult external scenario and with the eventual bid for CANTV, severely reduced liquidity, so that we are unlikely to re-enter for some time. NET ASSET VALUE Fully diluted 30/09/01 31/08/01 30/09/01 31/08/01 64.7p 76.5p 72.2p 81.5p MID-MARKET SHARE PRICE 30/09/01 31/08/01 Ordinary Shares 50.75p 64.25p Warrants 10.50p 15.50p NAV based on total assets less current liabilities of £30.9 million (£36.7 million). Market exposure 30/09/01 31/08/01 % % EQUITIES Brazil 27.9 32.7 Chile 10.9 10.8 Mexico 37.9 37.4 Venezuela - 0.6 TOTAL PORTFOLIO 76.7 81.5 Net Current Assets 23.3 18.5 -------- -------- TOTAL 100.0 100.0 -------- -------- Based on total assets of £41.1 million (£47.1 million). GEARING Gearing at 30/09/01 31/08/01 33.0% 28.2% ==== ==== LARGEST HOLDINGS (market value £28.1 million equal to 89.0% of total portfolio) Country £000's % of portfolio Telmex Mexico 4,899 15.5 Petrobras Brazil 2,815 8.9 Banco Itau Brazil 1,846 5.9 Wal-Mart de Mexico Mexico 1,581 5.0 Ambev Brazil 1,343 4.3 Vale do Rio Doce Brazil 1,336 4.2 Grupo Modelo Mexico 1,288 4.1 G.F BBVA-Bancomer Mexico 1,192 3.8 America Movil Mexico 1,150 3.6 Grupo Televisa Mexico 1,138 3.6 Cemex Mexico 1,133 3.6 Coca-Cola Femsa Mexico 847 2.7 Kimberly-Clark de Mexico Mexico 772 2.4 Telecom de Chile Chile 770 2.4 D & S Chile 747 2.4 Enersis Chile 731 2.3 Eletrobras Brazil 653 2.1 Consorcio Ara Mexico 579 1.8 Tele Norte Leste Brazil 556 1.8 Brasil Telecom Brazil 550 1.7 Femsa Mexico 514 1.6 Banco Santander Chile 460 1.5 Copel Brazil 422 1.3 Gerdau Brazil 410 1.3 Unibanco Brazil 386 1.2 FINANCIAL CALENDAR For further information, contact Rosie Bichard at Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited on 020-7545-6000. For additional copies, changes of address or details of our Private Investors' Plan, low cost ISA and Dividend Reinvestment Scheme (a recently established scheme through which shareholders, who hold their shares on the Company's main register, can use their dividends to purchase further shares) contact Mark Pope on 020-7545-0520, e-mail address: mark.pope@db.com. Further details of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust including the latest annual, interim and monthly reports can be found on the Deutsche Asset Management website located at www.deam-uk.com/uk/invest/. Issued by Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC and approved by Deutsche Investment Trust Managers Limited, regulated by the Investment Management Regulatory Organisation and manager of Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC. Investors should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future returns, values can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount they invested. Fluctuations in exchange rates may also affect the value of your investment. Investment in Deutsche Latin American Companies Trust PLC presents those risks associated with emerging markets which may at times be illiquid and/or volatile.
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